*N.B The Enmity Between Egypt & Ethiopia has Gone Up Again From Previous Stages.
Image caption,Egypt and Somalia's leaders have become very close this year - causing jitters in Ethiopia
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Author,Ian Wafula
Role,Africa security correspondent, BBC News 4 hours ago
A military alliance between Somalia and Egypt is ruffling feathers in the fragile Horn of Africa, upsetting Ethiopia in particular - and there are worries the fallout could become more than a war of words.
The tensions ratcheted up this week with the arrival of two Egyptian C-130 military aeroplanes in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, signalling the beginning of the deal signed earlier in August during a state visit by the Somali president to Cairo.
The plan is for up to 5,000 Egyptian soldiers to join a new-look African Union force at the end of the year, with another 5,000 reportedly to be deployed separately.
Ethiopia, which has been a key ally of Somalia in its fight against al-Qaeda-linked militants and is at loggerheads with Egypt over a mega dam it built on the River Nile, said it could not "stand idle while other actors take measures to destabilise the region”.
Somalia’s defence minister hit back, saying Ethiopia should stop "wailing” as everyone "will reap what they sowed” - a reference to their diplomatic relations that have been on a downward spiral for months.
Why are Ethiopia and Somalia at odds?
It all comes down to the ambitions of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who wants his landlocked country to have a port. Ethiopia lost its access to the sea when Eritrea seceded in the early 1990s. On New Year’s Day, Mr Abiy signed a controversial deal with the self-declared republic of Somaliland to lease a 20km (12-mile) section of its coastline for 50 years to set up a naval base.It could also potentially lead to Ethiopia officially recognising the breakaway republic - something Somaliland is pushing hard for.
Somaliland broke away from Somalia more than 30 years ago, but Mogadishu regards it very much as part of its territory - and described the deal as an act of "aggression”.
Somalia fears such a move might set a precedent and encourage other countries to recognise Somaliland's independence.
The neighbouring Djibouti was also worried it could harm its own port-dependent economy, as Ethiopia has traditionally relied on Djibouti for imports. In fact in an attempt to deescalate tensions, Djibouti’s foreign minister has told the BBC his country is ready to offer Ethiopia "100%” access to one of its ports.
"It will be in the port of Tadjoura - 100km [62 miles] from the Ethiopia border,”
This is definitely a change of tune for as recently as last year, a senior presidential adviser said Djibouti was reluctant to offer its neighbour unfettered access to the Red Sea.
Attempts so far to calm tensions - by Turkey - have failed, with Somalia insisting it will not budge until Ethiopia recognises its sovereignty over Somaliland.
Why is Ethiopia so upset by Somalia’s reaction?
Somalia has not only brought its Nile enemy Egypt into the mix, but also announced that Ethiopian troops would not be part of the AU force from next January.
This is when the AU’s third peace support operation begins - the first one was deployed in 2007 months after Ethiopian troops crossed over the border to help fight al-Shabab Islamist militants, who then controlled the Somali capital.There are at least 3,000 Ethiopian troops under the current AU mission, according to the Reuters news agency.Last week, the Somali prime minister also said Ethiopia would have to withdraw its other 5-7,000 soldiers stationed in several regions under separate bilateral agreements - unless it withdrew from the port deal with Somaliland.
Ethiopia sees this as a slap in the face for, as its foreign minister put it, "the sacrifices Ethiopian soldiers have paid” for Somalia.
The withdrawal of troops would also leave Ethiopia vulnerable to jihadist attacks,
The planned deployment of Egyptian troops along its eastern border would also make Ethiopia particularly apprehensive.
Egypt sees Ethiopia’s Nile dam - in the west of the country - as an existential threat – and has warned in the past that it will take "measures” should its security be threatened.
Why is the Nile dam so contentious?
Egypt accuses Ethiopia of threatening its supply of water with the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd). So let us see the consequence of mouthing wat that is going on between Egypt, Ethiopia and Somalia that caused by Xaafad-Tooyo deaf Soldier.
*N.B The Enmity Between Egypt & Ethiopia has Gone Up Again From Previous Stages.
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