Diraasad Istiraatiji Ah Oo Dhammeystiran:

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Wednesday February 04, 2026 - 15:28:59 in Articles by Faisal Abdullahi
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    Diraasad Istiraatiji Ah Oo Dhammeystiran:

    khatar istiraatiiji ah oo wiiqaysa kaalinteeda gobolka.

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khatar istiraatiiji ah oo wiiqaysa kaalinteeda gobolka.

1-
DIRAASAD ISTIRAATIJI AH
KHATARTA, CADAWWADDA & FARAGELINTA JAMHUURIYADDA JABUUTI KU WAJAHAN SOMALILAND


HORDHAC:


(Executive Summary).

Jabuuti waxay si isa soo taraysa u aragtaa Somaliland in ay tahay:

khatar dhaqaale:
khatar juqraafi-siyaasadeed.

khatar istiraatiiji ah oo wiiqaysa kaalinteeda gobolka.

Sidaas awgeed, Jabuuti waxay adeegsataa:

Faragelin sirdoon:
Cadaadis dhaqaale
Isbahaysi siyaasadeed (Somalia, Masar)
Isticmaalka kaabeyaasha muhiimka ah (internet,
bangiyo,
dekedo)

CUTUBKA -1-

Jabuuti & Aragtiyadeeda Somaliland (Strategic Perception)

1.1 Somaliland = Tartame Toos ah
Jabuuti uma aragto

Somaliland:

"walaal Soomaaliyeed”
balse waxay u aragtaa dal soo baxaya oo beddeli kara doorkeeda
Gaar ahaan:

Dekedaha
Transit-ka Itoobiya
Kaabeyaasha ganacsiga.

Aqoonsiga Somaliland =

Hoos u dhac dhaqaale oo Jabuuti ah.

CUTUBKA -2-

Jabhadda Hubaysan Gobolka Selel (Saylac)

2.1 Dabeecadda Khatarta
Selel waa:

Gobol xasaasi ah (border + badeed)
Jabhado hubaysan oo halkaas ka dhaqaaqa:

Waxay helaan meel ay ku dhuuntaan
(safe haven) dhulka Jabuuti
Dhaqdhaqaaqooda si buuxda looma joojin.

2.2 Qiimayn Istiraatiiji ah
Jabhaduhu:

Ma aha kuwo awood militari leh
Laakiin waa qalab destabilization ah.

Khatar amni oo heer-hoose ah, balse joogto ah.

CUTUBKA -3-

Cable-ka Internet-ka & Khataraha Amniga Dijitaalka.

3.1 Xaqiiqada Istiraatiijiga ah
Internet-ka Somaliland:

Wuxuu inta badan ka soo galaa Jabuuti
Cable-ku:

Waa asset amni (critical infrastructure)

3.2 Khataraha
Dhegeysi (metadata & traffic analysis)
Joojin ama carqaladayn xilliyo xasaasi ah
La socod:

Isgaadhsiinta ganacsiga
Hay’adaha dawladda:

Khatar amni oo heer qaran ah

CUTUBKA 4-

Sirdoonka Jabuuti ee Ka Shaqeeya Somaliland:

4.1 Hababka Ay Adeegsadaan
Ganacsi & NGO-yo
Xidhiidh siyaasiyiin gaar ah
La socod:

Dhaqdhaqaaqyada aqoonsiga
Xidhiidhada caalamiga ah.

4.2 Ujeeddada
Xakamaynta jihada Somaliland
Helitaanka xog hore
(early warning)

Faragelin sirdoon oo qarsoon,
balse joogto ah.

CUTUBKA 5-

Ku-tiirsanaanta Ganacsatada Somaliland ee Jabuuti.

5.1 Dhibaatada
Ganacsato badan:
Licence-yo Jabuuti
Account-yo bangiyo Jabuuti

5.2 Khataraha
Cadaadis dhaqaale
Xayiraad xisaabeed
Ku-qasbid siyaasad

Dhaqaale ahaan Somaliland waa la "leverage-gareyn karaa”.

CUTUBKA 6-

Passport-ka Jabuuti & Siyaasiyiinta Somaliland
Iyo wadaado iyo siyaasiyiin.

6.1 Sababta Loo Adeegsado
Safar fudud
Visa-free access

6.2 Khatarta
Ku xirnaan sharci
Cadaadis siyaasadeed
Suurtogal:
Blackmail
Influence

Khatar anshax & amni qaran.

CUTUBKA 7-

Berbera vs Dekedaha Jabuuti

7.1 Tartanka Tooska ah
Berbera:

Khatar istiraatiiji ah oo toos ah
Itoobiya:

Si tartiib ah uga wareegaysa Jabuuti.

7.2 Saamaynta
Hoos u dhac dakhliga Jabuuti
Luminta monopoly-ga

Berbera = sababta ugu weyn ee cadaawadda Jabuuti.

CUTUBKA 8-

Isbahaysiga Jabuuti & Soomaaliya
Jabuuti:

Si buuxda u taageerta midnimada Soomaaliya

Waxay la safan tahay:

Muqdisho
Turkiga
Masar
China

Waxaa loo arkaa "project jebinaya nidaamkaas”

Cadaawad siyaasadaysan oo wadajir ah.

CUTUBKA 9-

Masar & Xarunta Basaasidda (Egyptian Intelligence)

9.1 Asalka
Masar:

Xiisad la leh Itoobiya
(Biyaha Nile)

Somaliland:
Xidhiidh la leh Itoobiya.

9.2 Doorka Jabuuti

Jabuuti:
Waxay siisay Masar:

Xarumo
Marin sirdoon

Somaliland = bartilmaameed dadban.


GUNAANAD:

ISTIRAATIJI AH
Heerarka Khatarta:

-Militari: Hoose
-Sirdoon: Sare
-Dhaqaale: Sare
-Dijitaal: Sare
-Siyaasadeed: Aad u Sare- -Jabhado

Jabuuti ma aha dal weerar toos ah qaadi kara, balse waa:

Dal adeegsanaya cadaadis, carqaladayn, iyo faragelin hoose

TALOOYIN ISTIRAATIJI AH (Policy Recommendations)

1-Somaliland:
Ha kala furto internet-ka Jabuuti.

2-Ha dhisto:
Bangiyo & licences gudaha ah

3- Ha xoojiso:
Sirdoonka counter-intelligence.

4- Ha yarayso:
Ku-tiirsanaanta Jabuuti.


Diraasad :
Cali Biixi
AFEEF:

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