European Central Bank Makes Another Large Interest Rate Hike
The European Central
Bank piled on another outsized interest rate hike aimed at squelching
out-of-control inflation, increasing rates Thursday at the fastest pace in the
euro currency's history and raising questions about how far the bank intends to
go with the threat of recession looming over the economy.
The 25-member governing
council raised its interest rate benchmarks by three-quarters of a percentage
point at a meeting in Frankfurt, matching its record increase from last month
and joining the U.S. Federal Reserve in making a series of rapid hikes to
tackle soaring consumer prices.
"Inflation remains
far too high and will stay above our target for an extended period," ECB
President Christine Lagarde told reporters after the meeting. Bank policymakers
"expect to raise interest rates further to ensure the timely return of
inflation" to the 2% target.
She pointed to
continued rate hikes despite the bank expecting "further weakening in the
remainder of this year and the beginning of next year."
The ECB has now raised
rates for the 19-country euro area by a full 2 percentage points in just three
months, distance that took 18 months to cover during its last extended hiking
phase in 2005-2007 and 17 months in 1999-2000.
Central banks around
the world are rapidly raising interest rates that steer the cost of credit for
businesses and consumers. Their goal is to halt galloping inflation fueled by
high energy prices tied to Russia's war in Ukraine, post-pandemic supply
bottlenecks, and reviving demand for goods and services after COVID-19
restrictions eased. The Fed raised rates by three-quarters of a point for the
third straight time last month.
Quarter-point increases
have usually been the norm for central banks. But that was before inflation
spiked to 9.9% in the eurozone, fueled by higher prices for natural gas and
electricity after Russia cut off most of its gas supplies during the war in
Ukraine.
Inflation in the U.S.
is near 40-year highs of 8.2%, fueled in part by stronger growth and more
pandemic support spending than in Europe.
Inflation robs
consumers of purchasing power, leading many economists to pencil in a recession
for the end of this year and the beginning of next year in both the U.S. and
the 19 countries that use the euro as their currency.
Some analysts foresee a
half-point increase at the last rate-setting meeting of the year in December
and think the bank may pause after that.
The ECB predicts
inflation falling to 2.3% by the end of 2024.
Higher rates can
control inflation by making it more expensive to borrow, spend and invest,
lowering demand for goods. But the concerted effort to raise rates has also
raised concerns about their impact on economic growth and on markets for stocks
and bonds. Years of low rates on conservative investments have pushed investors
toward riskier holdings such as stocks, a process that is now going into
reverse, while rising rates can lower the value of existing bond holdings.
The head of the
International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, has warned that tightening
monetary policy "too much and too fast" raises the risk of prolonged
recessions in many economies. The IMF forecasts that global economic growth
will slow from 3.2% this year to 2.7% next year.
The ECB also must keep
an eye on the euro's sagging value against the U.S. dollar, although the ECB
says it does not target any particular exchange rate. A weaker euro worsens
inflation by raising the price of imported goods. The euro rose above parity
with the dollar on Wednesday but remains near its lowest levels in 20 years.
Reasons for the
dropping exchange rate include higher U.S. interest rates that attract money
into investments priced in dollars and, more broadly, the dwindling prospects
for Europe's economy. Europe is facing headwinds from the loss of cheap Russian
natural gas and an economic slowdown in key trade partner China.
ECB rate hikes, other
things being equal, could support the euro by lessening the interest rate gap
with the U.S.
The ECB's benchmark for
short-term lending to banks now stands at 2%, a level last seen in March 2009.
VOA
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