Turkish Mediation Can Be Key to An Ethiopia- Eritrea Ports Agreement
The Horn of Africa region is unique for its vast economic potential and strategic location.However, the principal nation-states of the Horn, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti have failed to grasp the opportunities inherent in their shared destinies.Since the post-colonial era and especially after the end of the Cold War in 1991, the Horn of Africa region has remained hostage to vicious civil and ethnic conflicts, widespread poverty, and political disintegration.
One of the salient factors consistently in the equation of all the Horn of Africa nations has been the absence of courageous and visionary political leaders who could steer the region and its prideful peoples away from war and onto the path of mutual prosperity and security.
A key turning point and hopeful sign was the 2018 joint declaration of peace and normalization of economic ties signed by Prime Minister Abiy of Ethiopia and President Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea. The whole world welcomed this as a turning point for unlocking the Horn’s vast economic opportunities, principally providing Ethiopia a stable and efficient conduit for its exports.
Eritrea also was set to benefit from becoming a new trading hub on the Red Sea. In fact, Prime Minister Abiy received the 2019 Nobel Peace prize because of the recognition of the transformative implications of the Ethiopia-Eritrea economic integration.
Unfortunately, since the disastrous Tigray War (2020-2022 ) a deepening rift between Prime Minister Abiy and President Isaias, we see renewed warmongering, mutual suspicions and accusations of domestic interference. Once again, a vicious cycle of bloodshed is feared.
However, Ethiopia and Eritrea’s leadership privately recognize the benefits of peaceful economic relations centred on a mutual port agreement. Yet, publicly both political leaders are unable to commit to take the first steps to realize this consensus.
Moreover, based on the recent statements of the two governments and leaders, I believe Prime Minister Abiy and President Isaias would welcome international mediation to secure a peaceful agreement on access to Eritrea’s ports along the Red Sea.
Mutual Peace in the Horn of Africa Benefits All
A prosperous Ethiopia and Eritrea will undoubtedly anchor prosperity and peace in the greater Horn of Africa nations.
A peaceful and prosperous Horn of Africa is an asset to all.
Already, as the Federal Government of Somalia under President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud government has strengthened its control over its sovereignty and degraded the Al Shabaab terror movement, especially in Mogadishu Ethiopia has benefited and is poised to extract the Ogaden and Shilaabo oil fields via Djibouti's port.
Therefore, stabilization is a total benefit for all, while war keeps everyone poor.
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What’s more, Eritrean ports could easily become the transit hub to export Ethiopia and South Sudan’s energy as well serve to bring in much needed imports.
Therefore, Ethiopia’s access to Eritrean ports will not diminish the prosperity of any neighboring country.
In fact, Ethiopia-Eritrea port agreement may lead to the expansion of trade between Djibouti and Ethiopia as more sectors of the industrial and agricultural industries export more and Djibouti's port transforms into the main port for Ethiopia’s natural gas.
Likewise, the Federal Republic of Somalia, which is fast recovering after three decades of war and anarchy will also benefit from an agreement between Eritrea and Ethiopia since this will aid Somali’s post-war recovery and stabilization.
Overall, the various peoples of the Horn of Africa nations will directly benefit from peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea since the region’s peoples are already closely tied through a shared history . The Horn of Africa peoples, therefore, deserve mutual prosperity, peaceful relations and economic development.
Turkish Mediation is Key
Therefore, I believe the President of the Republic Turkiye, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is the right mediator to bring Prime Minister Abiy and President Isaias Afwerki together for a mutually beneficial port agreement.
Both Ethiopia and Eritrea are seeking an off ramp from their predicament: the desire for peace coupled with lack of any concrete steps towards a resolution.
The Republic of Turkiye is situated as the best candidate to mediate a mutually acceptable port agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea for two important reasons.
Firstly, Turkiye has good relations with both Addis Ababa and Asmara to initiate the diplomatic detente. Secondly, Turkiye seeks to expand its investments in Eritrea’s ports, especially Massawa and Assab . More importantly, Turkiye has consistently shown its commitment to ensure the stability of its investments in the Horn of Africa region, especially Ethiopia through brokering an agreement between Prime Minister Abiy and President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud of Somalia last year.
However, the success of a Turkish-led mediation on ports between Ethiopia and Eritrea will also require the involvement and support of international guarantors, chiefly the United States, Germany and the EU.
Today, there is a window for an agreement on Red Sea ports between the Ethiopian and Eritrean leadership. Turkish mediation has the real prospect of resulting in a successful settlement which will not only benefit the Horn of Africa region but more importantly the Ethiopian and Eritrean economies.
hadhwanaagnews 
